The housing market has felt like it’s stuck in quicksand. Mortgage rates fluctuate, prices refuse to meaningfully dip, and inventory remains painfully low. First-time buyers—especially millennials and Gen Z—are finding themselves locked out, wondering: Who’s holding the keys to America’s housing supply?

Wall Street analyst M. Whitney, famously dubbed the “Oracle of Wall Street” for predicting the Great Financial Crisis, has a surprising answer. Writing in the Financial Times and reported by Fortune.com, Whitney argues that one powerful group has the resources, leverage, and incentive to keep things exactly as they are.

But before we reveal who, let’s look at the numbers.

• More than 54% of U.S. homes are now owned by seniors, up from 44% in 2008.

• An astonishing 79% of seniors own their homes outright, with three-quarters carrying no mortgage.

• That translates into enormous equity that can be tapped to offset rising costs like insurance, property taxes, and living expenses.

And that’s exactly what’s happening. Home equity lines of credit (HELOCs)—currently the cheapest and fastest-growing form of consumer debt—are surging, with 41% of revolving home equity credit held by seniors. Other debt products are helping them unlock cash without ever giving up their homes.

So, who exactly is controlling the market?

The Boomers’ Grip on Housing

The answer is clear: Baby Boomers.

Whitney makes the case that boomers have effectively locked up the housing market. Thanks to their accumulated wealth—an estimated $75 trillion—plus easy access to home equity products, they have little incentive to downsize, sell, or move.

In her words:

“Seniors control the proverbial chessboard, and with so many options, they aren’t moving anytime soon.”

That reality leaves younger generations with fewer paths into homeownership. In fact, the number of first-time buyers recently fell to a historic low, according to Fortune’s reporting.

And the implications ripple beyond just affordability. A stuck housing market also drags on the broader economy.

Housing’s Ripple Effect

Economists have long treated housing as a bellwether for recessions. When building slows and sales dip, downturns often follow. That’s exactly what we’re seeing now:

• Residential investment dropped 4.7% in the second quarter, after a 1.3% fall in the first.

• Building permits are falling, signaling future supply constraints.

• Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi recently labeled housing a “red flare” warning sign for the economy.

He estimates there’s now a 48% chance of a recession within the next 12 months—an unprecedented probability without the U.S. eventually tipping into an actual downturn.

The Big Picture

Boomers may not be intentionally blocking younger generations from buying homes, but the math is what it is. With most owning their properties outright, and with new financial tools that let them stay put comfortably, they’re in no rush to give up their advantage.

For millennials and Gen Z, that means the “starter home” may remain an elusive dream for years to come. And as Whitney warns:

“There will be no quick fixes.”

This article was adapted from original reporting by Fortune.com.